In a report released on Saturday, the Center for Economics and Business Research claims that the world’s first and second largest economies will exchange seats, according to the Gross Domestic Product expressed in dollars in 2028, five years earlier than estimated. with a year.
In addition, CEBR has calculated that China could become a high-income economy (which according to the World Bank definition means an economy with a gross national income per capital of over $ 12,356) as early as 2023. As proof of the power of Asia, India it could also rise in the rankings, becoming the world’s third largest economy by the end of this decade.
“For some time, a predominant theme of the world economy has been the economic and soft power struggle between the US and China. The COVID-19 pandemic and its economic consequences have certainly tipped the scales in China’s favor,” said the Center for Economics and Business Research.
According to the CEBR, the way China has successfully managed the pandemic, with a strict quarantine at the beginning, and the blows given to the long-term growth of Western economies, means that China’s relative economic performance has improved. According to CEBR estimates, China is expected to record an average economic growth rate of 5.7% per year in the period 2021-2025, after which it will slow to a growth of 4.5% per year in the period 2026-2030. In contrast, the US, although it will have a strong recovery after the pandemic in 2021, its growth rate will slow to 1.9% per year between 2022 and 2024, after which it will slow even further to 1.6% per year .
Japan will remain the world’s third largest economy, in dollars, until the early 2030s, when it is overtaken by India, which will mean that Germany will drop from fourth to fifth place. Britain, currently the fifth largest economy in the world according to CEBR, will fall to sixth place from 2024.