Market improves the outlook for GDP for the sixth consecutive month and estimates that the economy will grow to double digits in the second quarter.
Consulted by the Central Bank, they estimate that the economy expanded by more than 9% in April, as a consequence of a lower comparison base.
The historical rally that the price of copper is showing, which in recent sessions rose to its highest price on record, continues to boost growth prospects for the Chilean economy.
For the sixth month in a row, the experts consulted through the Central Bank’s Survey of Economic Expectations (EEE) increased their forecasts for the expansion of the Gross Domestic Product -GDP- for this year, placing them this time at 6.2%.
That implies an increase of two percentage points compared to the April poll. The data is above the expansion expected by the Ministry of Finance for this year (6%) and in the lower part of the range proposed by the issuing institute in the Monetary Policy Report -IPoM- of March (between 6% and 7% ).
Looking ahead to next year and 2023, economists maintained their bets compared to the previous survey, at 3.5% and 3%, respectively.
Already for the short term, market projections suggest that the Monthly Index of Economic Activity (Imacec) would have increased 9.1% in 12 months during April, a figure explained by the lower base of comparison due to the sharp fall it noted the activity in the same month of 2020, before the beginning of the most severe restrictions on mobility.
Along the same lines, the survey predicts that the Product will expand by 12% in the second quarter, a figure also explained by the rebound after the negative second quarter of last year (with a decrease of 14.1%).
Stable rate
Regarding monetary policy, those consulted expect the Central Bank to maintain the rate at the current technical minimum of 0.5% at the meeting that ends this Thursday. In turn, they expect a rise of 25 basis points to 0.75% in the next 11 months, to then reach 1.25% in a period of 17 months. In a 23-month horizon, they anticipate that the rate will be at 2%, 25 basis points above what they expected in the previous survey.
For local prices, they see a Consumer Price Index (CPI) of 0.3% in May and 0.2% for June, while by the end of the year inflation would close at 3.3%, one tenth higher than the poll conducted last month.
